ISIS is losing its territories in Syria and Iraq.

Many ISIS member and foreign fighters are on the run!

What does it mean for our security?

How will the defeat of ISIS effect worldwide Close Protection Services, military SOF and the future work of Law Enforcement?

Hi, I am Thomas. And this is my column for Close Quarters Combat Network!

The real danger of what may comes after ISIS!

Yesterday, I wrote about what will happen after a defeat of notorious terrorist group ISIS in their „homeland“, the torn up provinces of Syria and Iraq, haunted by a cruel civil war for so many years.

Read yesterday’s column here:

After Raqqa: What to expect?

We all know, that many ISIS fighters got away, slipping through barely protected borderlands into shadowy networks running by radical supporters in countries next to Syria and all over the Middle East.

We have to face the unsettling truth that many ISIS members and foreign fighters are on the loose now, and looking for revenge or new forms of employment in the global business of jihadism.

What does this partial defeat of ISIS mean for close protection service, military training and law enforcement?

Let’s have a look…

Close Protection Services after a defeat of ISIS

First, the spread of former ISIS members all over the world, joining new ranks within other terrorist groups, organized crime, smugglers, civil war parties and all their attempts to set up new branches of ISIS in other countries, will cause a growing demand for close protection service, for sure.

From protecting embassy personnel to executive protection and bodyguard services for VIPs – the demand for close protection will see a solid rise, for a decade at least.

Of course, this trend won’t be caused exclusively by former ISIS members on the loose – we would give them far too much credit, if we would say so.

The world is heading towards far more complex conflicts and risk profiles.

But thousands of ISIS fighters looking for „business“ will add some risks to he equivocation of international security.

These are risks that people with deep pockets or in crucial position of governmental or diplomatic work unlikely want to carry, if they don’t have to.

And because of the money they can spend on security they certainly don’t have to, unlike the vast majority of common people.

So, close protection business will become bigger, simply because money and power will ask for more security while the world is getting more complex.

When big money looks for more security

Today, more and more high net worth individuals feel uncomfortable while visiting towns like Paris, London and Barcelona.

They have seen of all those sudden and cruel terror attacks in Europe’s biggest cities over the past few years and as highly valuable targets for all kinds of attacks they certainly don’t feel that they want to get into trouble while traveling through the major cities around the world.

Big money plus fear fuels demand for tailored security solutions, so to speak: demand for professional close protection services is one the rise.

Former ISIS fighter looking for trouble maybe won’t be the biggest concern that rich VIPs and global business leaders will have, but they will add some drive to the growing demand for security solutions when they may join Europe’s organized crime, local terrorist cells or uprisings in North Africa.

Close protection services really could become huge in Europe, but we have some very restrictive laws regarding firearms, that will cause the industry some headache while trying to keep up with the growing demand.

Close Protection can go big or it will go down the drain in Europe – depending on what kind of policies law makers will pull out of their pockets to regulate and supervise this still very young industry within their own countries.

So, if you work in Close Protection Service in Europe: The trend is your friend. But policy makers are certainly not (for now).

A world after ISIS: What next for military SOF?

In the world of military and SOF there is one thing for sure:

Military training will become huge in troubled regions, like Northern Africa, Central Africa and the countries next to the Gulf of Aden.

As the United States clearly don’t want to become involved in local conflicts or exhausting tribal uprisings anymore and Europe prefers to send money rather than to send troops – and while China and Russia follow their own agenda in these regions – the demand for proper training of local military forces will be big business for the next one or two decades.

Big governmental training contracts are waiting, sometimes underwritten by the help of international spenders and driven by of global security concerns.

Training will be big. If you are part of this military branch, you won’t run out of work for quite a while.

SOF? You better be an expert, now!

What about all the other branches of special operations?

After what our military forces have learned through the campaigns in Mossul and Raqqa, and after all those years of combat experience in Iraq and Syria, most western SOF will become more specialized than ever before.

With the modern rules of engagement that want to keep civilian casualties as low as possible and the infrastructure within combat-zones mostly intact our western SOF will be in need for highly specialized experts to create even more highly specialized units than ever before in military history.

Reconnaissance teams, experts for tracking and manhunting, EOD units, specialized assault teams, surveillance, intelligence, hackers, engineers, experts for local tribal affairs, local advisors, cultural experts, language experts – you name it.

For the next decade, building SOF units will mean to bring very specific and highly specialized subject matter experts together for dealing with complex threats and conflicts on a multi-dimensional scale.

So, if you want to get into SOF, you better be an expert in something – meeting the physical requirements and having outstanding shooting skills may not be enough anymore.

The age of modern SOF man-hunting

And speaking of ISIS, for hunting down the missing members of this terrorist group, it will take exactly this kind of groups built by subject matter experts working together as specialized SOF unit and Taskforce.

We talk about highly flexible SOF units, capable to investigate terrorist activities on a broader scale, collecting intelligence, following, hunting and tracking all kind of traces (virtual and real) left out there by terrorists and their underground activities.

Modern SOF will surveil and infiltrate networks, deal with complex tribal rulings, follow the financial tails of modern terrorism and when necessary they will be able to execute quick and violent assaults to catch or kill the remaining members of ISIS (and its proceeders) all over the world.

Fast, flexible and highly specialized; hunting down shadow networks that try to gain ground against all international efforts against terrorism by hiding, changing and evolving all the time, while following their sick premise to cause as much damage as possible whenever they can.

Law enforcement: What to expect after ISIS?

Law enforcement will mostly do the same like military SOF.

But on a different and local scale, of course.

A lot of intelligence, investigation, surveillance, monitoring and infiltration of radical networks.

If you have a career in that fields, you will be a busy man.

SWAT teams will become the norm – even for smaller provinces and regions.

Training police units  to respond effectively on terror attack or highly violent forms of organized crime will be a very important field of police work for years.

Tactical trainer with a solid background in SOF and SWAT will await some heavy workload for many years ahead.

If more cruel and devastating terror-attacks will happen, we will see a shift in the public opinion to welcome more intensified police work in general and we will see a growing willingness of policy-makers to give police more legal tools to act and to do what they have to do.

Hopefully.

Because the missing ISIS members on „wanderlust“ will not hesitate to do a lot of harm and damage to what they hate the most: our western cities, our people and our way of life.

It is good to know that there are many good and well trained people out there who will give them a hard time. Thank you for hat!

Read more:

Yesterday’s column: After Raqqa – What to expect?

Finacial Times: ISIS Financial Escape Routes

 

Back to our Homepage